Historical index lab

2026 World Cup Prediction Lab

A lightweight, explainable football history index derived from World Cup performance. It is a data preparation step, not a prediction model.

View historical indexMake your pick

Top historical strength score

Brazil

Score

91.86

Appearances
22
Titles
5
Finals
7
Semi-finals
11
Win rate
66.67%
Goals
237

Current form leader

Morocco

Recent record 16-4-0

75.5

For fun and education only. This is a historical football strength index, not a machine-learning model, betting system, or win-probability forecast.

Historical Strength Score

Top 30 nations

Scores combine normalized World Cup appearances, titles, finals, semi-finals, and match win rate. No current form, FIFA ranking, ELO, or prediction probability is used.

Swipe sideways to see every column.

RankTeamConfedHistorical Strength ScoreAppearancesTitlesFinalsSemisWin rateGF / GAAvg finish est.
1
Brazil
Best finish: position 1
CONMEBOL
91.86
22571166.67%237 / 1087.41
2
Germany
Best finish: position 1
UEFA
88.34
20481360.71%232 / 1306.4
3
Italy
Best finish: position 1
UEFA
74.2
1846854.22%128 / 7712.39
4
Argentina
Best finish: position 1
CONMEBOL
66.81
1836653.41%152 / 10110.28
5
France
Best finish: position 1
UEFA
55.24
1624753.42%136 / 8512
6
Uruguay
Best finish: position 1
CONMEBOL
44.1
1422542.37%89 / 7612.43
7
England
Best finish: position 1
UEFA
37.1
1611343.24%104 / 6811.31
8
Spain
Best finish: position 1
UEFA
36.25
1611246.27%108 / 7514.56
9
Netherlands
Best finish: position 2
UEFA
33.72
1103554.55%96 / 528.45
10
Sweden
Best finish: position 2
UEFA
27.21
1201437.25%80 / 7312
11
Mexico
Best finish: quarter-finals
CONCACAF
26.01
1700028.33%62 / 10118.82
12
Belgium
Best finish: position 3
UEFA
25.52
1400241.18%69 / 7416.21
13
Hungary
Best finish: position 2
UEFA
24.27
902246.88%87 / 5713.78
14
Serbia
Best finish: position 4
UEFA
23.71
1300236.73%71 / 7115.69
15
Czechoslovakia
Best finish: position 2
UEFA
21.88
802236.67%44 / 4514.5
16
Russia
Best finish: position 4
UEFA
20.38
1100142.22%77 / 5414.55
17
Switzerland
Best finish: quarter-finals
UEFA
19.78
1200034.15%55 / 7316.67
18
Poland
Best finish: position 3
UEFA
19.05
900244.74%49 / 5015.33
19
United States
Best finish: position 3
CONCACAF
18.59
1100124.32%40 / 6617
20
Croatia
Best finish: position 2
UEFA
18.48
601343.33%43 / 3313.33
21
Portugal
Best finish: position 3
UEFA
18.07
800248.57%61 / 4114.88
22
South Korea
Best finish: position 4
AFC
18
1100118.42%39 / 7820.73
23
Chile
Best finish: position 3
CONMEBOL
16.76
900133.33%40 / 4919
24
Austria
Best finish: position 3
UEFA
15.99
700241.38%43 / 4714.71
25
Paraguay
Best finish: quarter-finals
CONMEBOL
13.5
800025.93%30 / 3819
26
Romania
Best finish: quarter-finals
UEFA
13.36
700038.1%30 / 3217.14
27
Cameroon
Best finish: quarter-finals
CAF
12.83
800019.23%22 / 4722
28
Scotland
Best finish: group stage
UEFA
12.65
800017.39%25 / 4124
29
Japan
Best finish: round of 16
AFC
12.35
700028%25 / 3319.43
30
Colombia
Best finish: quarter-finals
CONMEBOL
12.27
600040.91%32 / 3018.67

Current Strength Index

History meets recent form

Phase 1 uses each team's latest 20 completed matches, recent goal difference, and a small 2026 host flag. Still no FIFA ranking, Elo rating, ML, or probabilities.

Swipe sideways to compare the full current-strength table.

TeamHistorical Strength ScoreCurrent Strength ScoreRecent formRecent goal differenceHost advantageRecordPPM
Brazil
CONMEBOL
91.8655.256065 (+0.9/match)None10-6-41.8
Germany
UEFA
88.3464.257075 (+1.5/match)None13-3-42.1
Italy
UEFA
74.255.2961.6760.83 (+0.65/match)None11-4-51.85
Argentina
CONMEBOL
66.8168.137577.5 (+1.65/match)None14-3-32.25
France
UEFA
55.2462.387067.5 (+1.05/match)None13-3-42.1
Uruguay
CONMEBOL
44.140.6643.3350 (0/match)None5-11-41.3
England
UEFA
37.169.6376.6779.17 (+1.75/match)None15-1-42.3
Spain
UEFA
36.2571.588078.33 (+1.7/match)None14-6-02.4
Netherlands
UEFA
33.7259.9163.3375 (+1.5/match)None10-8-21.9
Sweden
UEFA
27.2150.545559.17 (+0.55/match)None10-3-71.65
Mexico
CONCACAF
26.0168.3466.6760 (+0.6/match)Host boost11-7-22
Belgium
UEFA
25.5249.585068.33 (+1.1/match)None8-6-61.5
Hungary
UEFA
24.27364040 (-0.6/match)None6-6-81.2
Serbia
UEFA
23.7140.294544.17 (-0.35/match)None7-6-71.35
Czechoslovakia
UEFA
21.8842.3343.3356.67 (+0.4/match)None6-8-61.3
Russia
UEFA
20.3868.573.3383.33 (+2/match)None13-5-22.2
Switzerland
UEFA
19.784951.6761.67 (+0.7/match)None8-7-51.55
Poland
UEFA
19.0546.2951.6750.83 (+0.05/match)None9-4-71.55
United States
CONCACAF
18.5958.2153.3354.17 (+0.25/match)Host boost10-2-81.6
Croatia
UEFA
18.4858.0463.3367.5 (+1.05/match)None11-5-41.9

History vs Current Form

Where does your team sit: history, form, or both?

Hover or tap points

00252550507575100100Strong in bothHistorical heavyweightsCurrent risersOutside the spotlightHistorical Strength ScoreCurrent Strength ScoreBrazil: Historical heavyweights, historical 91.86, current 55.25, recent record 10-6-4Germany: Strong in both, historical 88.34, current 64.25, recent record 13-3-4Italy: Historical heavyweights, historical 74.2, current 55.29, recent record 11-4-5Argentina: Strong in both, historical 66.81, current 68.13, recent record 14-3-3France: Strong in both, historical 55.24, current 62.38, recent record 13-3-4Uruguay: Historical heavyweights, historical 44.1, current 40.66, recent record 5-11-4England: Strong in both, historical 37.1, current 69.63, recent record 15-1-4Spain: Strong in both, historical 36.25, current 71.58, recent record 14-6-0Netherlands: Strong in both, historical 33.72, current 59.91, recent record 10-8-2Sweden: Historical heavyweights, historical 27.21, current 50.54, recent record 10-3-7Mexico: Strong in both, historical 26.01, current 68.34, recent record 11-7-2Belgium: Historical heavyweights, historical 25.52, current 49.58, recent record 8-6-6Hungary: Historical heavyweights, historical 24.27, current 36, recent record 6-6-8Serbia: Historical heavyweights, historical 23.71, current 40.29, recent record 7-6-7Czechoslovakia: Historical heavyweights, historical 21.88, current 42.33, recent record 6-8-6Russia: Current risers, historical 20.38, current 68.5, recent record 13-5-2Switzerland: Outside the spotlight, historical 19.78, current 49, recent record 8-7-5Poland: Outside the spotlight, historical 19.05, current 46.29, recent record 9-4-7United States: Current risers, historical 18.59, current 58.21, recent record 10-2-8Croatia: Current risers, historical 18.48, current 58.04, recent record 11-5-4Portugal: Current risers, historical 18.07, current 61.25, recent record 11-7-2South Korea: Current risers, historical 18, current 60.25, recent record 12-5-3Chile: Outside the spotlight, historical 16.76, current 34.88, recent record 6-4-10Austria: Current risers, historical 15.99, current 62.09, recent record 12-4-4Paraguay: Outside the spotlight, historical 13.5, current 43.71, recent record 8-5-7Romania: Outside the spotlight, historical 13.36, current 50.96, recent record 10-3-7Cameroon: Current risers, historical 12.83, current 56.79, recent record 11-5-4Scotland: Outside the spotlight, historical 12.65, current 44.96, recent record 9-2-9Japan: Current risers, historical 12.35, current 69.58, recent record 14-3-3Colombia: Outside the spotlight, historical 12.27, current 46.62, recent record 8-5-7BrazilGermanyItalyArgentinaFranceEnglandSpainNetherlands

Team tooltip

Hover or tap a point to inspect a team.

Strong in both

Old trophy cabinet, current engine still warm.

Argentina

68.13

Historical 66.81 · Recent 14-3-3

Germany

64.25

Historical 88.34 · Recent 13-3-4

France

62.38

Historical 55.24 · Recent 13-3-4

Historically strong, currently quieter

Big legacy, softer recent-form signal.

Uruguay

40.66

Historical 44.1 · Recent 5-11-4

Historically lighter, currently lively

Less World Cup legacy, very punchy recent results.

Japan

69.58

Historical 12.35 · Recent 14-3-3

Russia

68.5

Historical 20.38 · Recent 13-5-2

Mexico

68.34

Historical 26.01 · Recent 11-7-2

Austria

62.09

Historical 15.99 · Recent 12-4-4

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Methodology

How to read the scores

The historical score rewards teams that have repeatedly gone deep at World Cups: showing up often, winning titles, reaching finals and semi-finals, and winning matches.

The current score is a lightweight snapshot of recent international results. It looks at the last 20 matches, recent goal difference, and whether a team is one of the 2026 hosts.

Germany includes West Germany under the documented normalization rules. Current Strength uses recent form only, with no machine learning, FIFA ranking, Elo rating, or win probability.

View methodology details

Historical Strength Score

Count metrics are scaled from 0-100 against the strongest nation in the dataset. Win rate is match wins divided by matches played, also represented on a 0-100 scale.

0.30 * appearances_score + 0.25 * titles_score + 0.20 * finals_score + 0.15 * semi_finals_score + 0.10 * win_rate_score

Current Strength Index Phase 1

Recent-form and goal-difference metrics are scaled to 0-100, then combined with a small host flag for USA, Mexico, and Canada.

0.65 * recent_form_score + 0.25 * recent_goal_difference_score + 0.10 * host_advantage_score
This is a historical football strength index derived from World Cup performance. It is useful context for an explainable lab, but it does not predict 2026 outcomes.